The Promising “R” Factor: India will win the Coronavirus War

17 Aug 2020

Professor Sitabhra Sinha, the modelling Expert of the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, hopefully, says that India will win the war against Covid-19. His study has proved that the “R” Factor or the ‘R’ Rate that implies the Reproduction rate, the measuring tool to find out the rate of infection is considerably placed in the safe zone, i.e., below 1.0. This means that one infected person spreads the virus only to less than one other person. The dangerous level or zone is considered as far above 1.0 or 2.0 onwards where one infected person spreads the virus to on an average of two people.

The modelling study has categorised infectious zone into three. The first category includes ten of the larger states such as Gujarat, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh etc. are having the ‘R’ Factor has shown the trend below 1.0.

Though the states such as Assam, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Tamil Nadu etc., which come under the second category initially had some upward trend in the ‘R’ Factor, above 1.0, later the trend was stabilized and maintained at the safe level, 1.0.

The third category which includes Bihar, Punjab, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh etc., has evidently still fixed at high-risk zone having the ‘R’ Factor over and above the safe level below 1.0. This category is the only bottle-neck area that perhaps undermine the winning phase of India in the war against Covid-19.

But the general assessment of the modelling study of Professor Sitabhra Sinha, hopefully, claims that India at present almost maintains the safe-level ‘R’ Factor trend below 1.0. And this trending leads to the conclusion that India will win the war against Covid-19 as soon as possible.